One of the most famous meme coins in the crypto world, Dogecoin ($DOGE), is going through an extended period of stagnation and even appears to be gaining some downside momentum.
In recent weeks, whale activity on the Dogecoin network has fallen sharply, dropping nearly 88% since mid-November. This significant drop in whale trading, combined with a few other potentially “not good” for $DOGE signals, has some observers worrying that Dogecoin has entered a bear market.
Recent figures indicate that a potential change in market sentiment is underway, with technical signals such as the death cross currently appearing between the market value to realized value ratio and the 200-day moving average, a pattern often linked to price declines. As the price of $DOGE continues to have difficulties, the need for it to break out above some crucial resistance levels and achieve a clean reversal has become all-important not just for the downtrend but also for (and especially for) the restoring of investor confidence in the coin that started as a joke.
Declining Whale Activity and Market Sentiment
In the past, the price movements of Dogecoin were significantly affected by activities involving large holders of the cryptocurrency. But now, the latest statistics show that transactions involving large amounts of Dogecoin have declined considerably. The number of such transactions has fallen by almost 90% since November 2021. This downward trend is not an isolated development. Dogecoin appears to be experiencing a declining overall interest from both institutions and individuals with deep pockets.
Whales, who are usually in charge of moving large amounts of assets, can have a key effect on the price of assets like Dogecoin. When they accumulate, they drive the price up. When they sell, they drive the price down. The amount of activity from whales is akin to the amount of wind produced by a hurricane. The more wind there is, the higher the chance of serious damage. Conversely, a calm period usually means no imminent threat of hurricanes. A decline in the activity of whales could signal that the big players are not as confident as they once were in the future price of Dogecoin.
Whale transactions have plummeted as Dogecoin has been sinking. The price of Dogecoin is down, and the lack of support from whale transactions could be a part of that.
In the rough million-dollar-plus league, the number of transactions has dropped to about 5 to 10 in the first quarter of 2023, from 25 to 30 in the last quarter of 2022. And despite a short uptick in the last month with about 3 to 5 transactions, we’re back down again. Whether or not this supports or is part of a bear theory for DOGE isn’t clear.
#Dogecoin $DOGE remains in a downtrend, forming lower lows and lower highs. A breakout above key resistance is needed to shift momentum! pic.twitter.com/kBomx6RXrG
— Ali (@ali_charts) February 16, 2025
The Bearish Technical Indicators
In addition to the downturn in whale activity, Dogecoin’s technical indicators are not showing encouraging signs. A death cross has formed wherein the MVRV ratio (Market Value to Realized Value) has crossed below its 200-day moving average (MA). A formation like this has historically happened before steep price declines. The last two times it happened, the price of $DOGE went down by 26% and 44%, respectively.
#Dogecoin $DOGE just saw a death cross between the MVRV Ratio and its 200-day MA. The last two times this happened, prices dropped 26% and 44%. pic.twitter.com/G5CslTGuMJ
— Ali (@ali_charts) February 17, 2025
One commonly used indicator for assessing asset valuation is the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio. Death crosses between the MVRV ratio and the 200-day moving average (MA) can give us a hint at the kind of danger that might lie ahead for an asset’s price, as they represent signals that the asset’s market value is becoming increasingly detached from its actual realized value. This kind of cautionary flag can appear on a trader’s chart, suggesting that further price drops could be on the way.
One of several bearish signals that suggest major problems are ahead for Dogecoin is the formation of the death cross. Recent price movements show a consistent downtrend, with Dogecoin forming a series of lower lows and lower highs. This pattern indicates that there’s not a lot of buying interest for $DOGE, with each attempted rally being met with stronger selling resistance. The downtrend, and the signals that it’s going to keep going, have a lot of investors asking questions about the health and potential of $DOGE.
The Need for a Breakout
Currently, Dogecoin’s price momentum is bearish, and it has a long way to go before shifting to bullish. To change the current price momentum, Dogecoin must first clear several key resistance levels. This price action would need to occur for a variety of reasons: easing and possibly reversing selling pressure, renewed interest from the Dogecoin whales, strong social media mojo that would just make folks want to buy the token, or, quite simply, a market that has revisited enthusiasm for Dogecoin as a speculative asset.
If Dogecoin does not manage to break out soon, it could continue its downtrend and test lower support levels. The absence of whale support, coupled with what appear to be negative technical signals, leaves the meme coin in a very vulnerable space. To be sure, meme coins like Dogecoin can be highly volatile and are prone to the kind of sudden price swings that could send them in an opposite direction. But at present, the bearish trend seems to suggest that the path of least resistance is down.
At present, Dogecoin’s future is unpredictable. If the market mood continues to swing toward caution and if the concentration of assets among the largest holders of Dogecoin remains subdued, then Dogecoin could very well be on its way to post another disappointing performance. However, if something happens to refocus investor interest on Dogecoin and if buy orders come flooding back into the market to push past some key price levels tied to resistance, then could find itself back in the performance lane it was enjoying for most of 2021.
To sum up, Dogecoin’s market is at present undergoing a period of sizeable difficulties. Falling whale activity, when viewed alongside bearish technical signals like the death cross, strongly indicates that a downtrend is in place that is hard to dispute. For DOGE to regain any sort of momentum, a drive to breakout above key resistance levels will be necessary, not to mention a renewed fervor for the market in general. Until that happens, the forecast for Dogecoin is at least cloudy, with a sizeable chance of meme-coin capitulation, and has drawn the close scrutiny of investors paid to watch it when they can.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
Follow us on Twitter @nulltxnews to stay updated with the latest Crypto, NFT, AI, Cybersecurity, Distributed Computing, and Metaverse news!
Image Source: meshcube/123RF // Image Effects by Colorcinch
Source: https://nulltx.com/dogecoin-doge-faces-declining-whale-activity-and-bearish-signals-is-a-trend-reversal-coming/
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