As the US session comes to a close, the USD is ending the session mixed. The greenback was lower vs the JPY (-0.72%) and the the CHF (-0.84%). The greenback also fell vs the CAD after Trump and Commerce Sec Lutnick said the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican products would be postponed until April 2. Trump also announced that other tariffs would be reciprocal.
If the US trade deficit was to be a deciding factor on tariffs, they certainly would have been enacted immediately. Both the overall trade deficit and the Good trade deficit moved to record deficit levels. However, the surge in imports from trading partners was likely a result of expectations for tariffs ahead. The trade balance surged to -$131B from $-98.4B last month. The Goods deficit also surged. Pres. Trump did tweet that Sleepy Joe was responsible but most in the know, understand them to be a result of the impending risk of tariffs.
IN other news Initial jobless claims fell back to 221K after the spike to 242K last week. Faulty seasonals seem to have led to the spike.
In central bank news, the ECB cut rates by 2 basis points as expected. Highlights from the ECB statement:
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Rate Cut: The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.90%, effective March 12, 2025.
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Inflation Outlook: The disinflation process remains on track, with headline inflation projections at 2.3% (2025), 1.9% (2026), and 2.0% (2027). Core inflation (excluding energy & food) is expected at 2.2% (2025), 2.0% (2026), and 1.9% (2027). Wage growth remains a factor but is moderating as expected.
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Economic Growth: Growth projections were revised downward due to weaker exports and investment uncertainty, with GDP forecasts at 0.9% (2025), 1.2% (2026), and 1.3% (2027). Rising real incomes and fading effects of past rate hikes are expected to support demand over time.
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Monetary Policy Stance: The ECB is not pre-committing to a specific rate path and will take a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach based on inflation trends, financial conditions, and economic data.
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Asset Purchases: The APP and PEPP portfolios continue to decline as reinvestments have ceased.
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Policy Flexibility: The ECB stands ready to adjust policy tools to maintain inflation stability and ensure smooth monetary transmission, with the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) available to counter market disruptions.
At the Q&A from the press conference ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that consumer confidence remains fragile, with uncertainty weighing heavily on investment and contributing to subdued employment growth. While services remain resilient, the manufacturing sector continues to drag on growth, prompting a downward revision in GDP forecasts. Lagarde noted that trade tensions could further slow economic expansion, and risks to growth remain tilted to the downside.
On inflation, Lagarde stated that most forecasts still indicate a return to target in the medium term, but domestic inflation remains high. However, recent wage agreements suggest a moderation in wage pressures. She also acknowledged that rising uncertainty will likely dampen investment more than initially expected.
During the Q&A session, Lagarde highlighted a shift toward a more evolutionary approach to policy, stressing that the ECB will not precommit to a specific path and will be increasingly data-dependent. She reassured that while individual governors may express their views, these are not collective decisions. She also noted that short-term market fluctuations will not drive policy shifts and that German fiscal policies could potentially boost growth, but their effects still need parliamentary approval and implementation.
Lagarde’s overall tone underscored the uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts and the variability of policy decisions in response to shifting conditions.
Later, ECB sources indicate that the likelihood of a pause in rate cuts for April is increasing, though this aligns with market expectations, which currently price in a 43% probability of a cut. Despite this potential pause, rates are still expected to decline further, with 2.5% unlikely to be the cycle’s bottom. Market projections suggest that rates could fall as low as 2.00% in the long run.
Fed speakers were highlighted by Fed’s Harker and Fed’s Waller:
- Fed Governor Harker stated that while the economy generally looks stable, there are growing risks that could threaten its outlook. He expressed concern over factors that may challenge the U.S. dollar’s reserve status, as well as declining business and consumer confidence, which could weaken economic momentum. Additionally, he warned that progress in reducing inflation may be at risk and highlighted rising concerns over government deficits. Overall, Harker noted that the “wall of worry” is starting to grow, signaling increased caution about future economic challenges.
- Fed Governor Waller noted that while there are some signs of softer economic data, the Fed needs more hard data before making policy changes. He does not see a case for a March rate cut, but acknowledged that rate cuts could come after the March meeting, with two cuts for 2025 remaining a reasonable expectation. Waller emphasized that the Fed’s monetary policy decisions are driven by data, not politics, and that the job market is stabilizing near pre-pandemic conditions, with 80-100k job growth likely being the new breakeven level.
Furthmore Waller added that on tariffs, he pointed out that past Trump tariffs had minimal impact, but a 25% tariff would be much harder to absorb. He is particularly focused on market pricing of inflation expectations, noting that markets are not currently pricing in serious long-term inflation risks. Overall, his comments suggest a cautious but open stance on future rate cuts, contingent on incoming economic data.
US stocks closed sherply lower as fears of growth slowdown continues to weigh. The Nasdaq closed below its 200 day MA at 18392 after tumbling -483 points or -2.61%. The low took the index down around 3% intraday. The S&P fell -104 points or -1.78%. closing at 5738.52, and did trade below the 200-day MA intraday at 5730.77. However, the price rebounded into the close and closed above the key MA . Tomorrow will be key with the US jobs report scheduled to be released before the US stock opening.
US yields were mixed with a steeper yield curve.
- 2 year3.969%, -1.7 basis points
- 5 year 4.066%, +0.8 point basis points
- 10 year 4.291%, +2.5 basis points
- 30 year 41590%, +3.1 basis points
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