Considering the large number of probes, investigations, and lawsuits in which Elon Musk and his companies are involved, the billionaire’s newfound influence over the agencies supposed to regulate his firms has raised some alarm bells.
The Trump administration’s explanation that the South African-Canadian-American businessman would recuse himself should he find any conflict of interest didn’t put many minds at ease, with some even arguing that such a setup itself constitutes a conflict of interest.
Despite the somewhat dubious circumstances, the work of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.) continues, frequently in a typical Silicon Valley ‘move fast, break things’ fashion as exemplified by the firing and rehiring of nuclear engineers or gutting an agency that, throughout its history, has what amounts to a 100% return on investment.
Why Tesla stock remains a ‘buy’ despite market turbulence
Musk’s role in the government has, so far, had a similar impact on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock price as his tenure as the CEO of X – called Twitter at the time – as the electric vehicle (EV) maker ended its short-lived but strong rally, and went on a decline.
The TSLA share price collapse – as large as 45.33% from the highs at $479.86 achieved on December 17, 2024 – to $262.32 at press time arguably created more of a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity than signaled the final decline toward values forecasted by, for example, the company’s biggest Wall Street bear.
Most analysts continue predicting that Tesla stock will enjoy a rally in the coming 12 months, with even the more pessimistic targets setting their value above the press time price.
A major element of President Donald Trump’s agenda is fostering business and innovation through deregulation, to a large extent. Simultaneously, with Musk on a warpath to dismantle and reduce the many federal agencies, enforcement mechanisms against foul play have already been weakened.
Such a setup almost guarantees that Tesla will be able to roll out its promised products, such as ‘full self-driving’ (FSD) faster, thus generating tailwinds for TSLA shares. Similarly, Elon Musk is all but guaranteed to eventually shift his focus back to his primary and most profitable business: a move also likely to generate tailwinds as at least some of the investor confidence is restored.
What is the best time to buy Tesla shares?
Under these circumstances, the question becomes more about when to start buying Tesla stock – the downward movement is, at press time, continuous.
Conventional wisdom mandates easing one’s way with incremental investments – essentially dollar-cost averaging (DCA) – is the optimal approach as it takes advantage of price fluctuations without making a trader overexposed to any individual moves.
Even the deluge of negative news does not entirely diminish the 2025 buy argument for TSLA shares. Since January, most delivery reports have shown a trend for decline, with sales in China dropping on a monthly basis, EU sales being down as much as 45%, and figures for individual countries being even worse.
Buying while Tesla stock is on a decline could also be intriguing as the EV maker appears poised to gain substantial market share in a massive and emerging market for electric cars: India.
Specifically, Elon Musk’s recent meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi was reportedly fruitful and could lead to a new manufacturing plant in the third or fourth quarter of 2025.
Still, as is the case for most TSLA tailwinds, investors should remain cautious. Indian automotive moguls have boasted about Tesla’s low odds of success in the country, and a new factory in the Asian nation has been floated around as imminent for years.
Why Tesla’s next earnings report could trigger a massive TSLA rally
The seemingly irrational stock market reactions to earnings – Nvidia’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) woes in the wake of its otherwise strong report being the best example – as well as Tesla’s own performance approximately one year ago offer some insight into the dynamic that might unfold.
In early 2024, the EV maker enjoyed a rally between late January and early March as the financial report it made, despite missing analyst forecasts for the most part, did not come in as bad as investors feared.
The deluge of negative developments for Tesla in early 2025 indicate the stock price drop is likely to persist – possibly even intensify – in the leadup to the next filing, expected for April 22. Simultaneously, there will likely be a strong rally once the figures are out as they are unlikely to be as grim as traders will probably fear.
Finally, though the ‘facts are unlikely to be as abysmal as the expectations’ makes for a strange bull case, it is worth remembering that Tesla remains the biggest EV maker in the West, giving it significant headroom to eventually recover from its current misfortunes.
On the flip side, unless there are major changes in the political divide, Elon Musk’s reputation, or Tesla’s ability to deliver on what its CEO promises, 2026 could be the final year to sell before the equity enters a Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID)-like decline.
Why 2026 could be a bad year for Tesla stock
To begin with, the Trump administration’s deregulation and trade war against the world could lead to exceptional stock market outcomes once the dust is settled – that is, unless the turbulence triggers a recession first – but it could lead to bad outcomes for the customers.
Though the parallel is not absolute, most of the news pertaining to Boeing (NYSE: BA) that has come out since late 2023 amply demonstrates a common tendency among major corporations once proper oversight is removed.
Given that Tesla already has something of a reputation for being a spontaneous combustion engine and is under multiple investigations, including some dealing with alleged FSD-related deaths, there is room for concern that the EV maker might begin unraveling eventually.
Still, despite negativity toward the car manufacturer becoming popular in some circles and some criticism being amply merited, it is also necessary to remember that Tesla boasts a relatively strong track record with many of its products and developments.
Elsewhere, even if the halt to probes and enforcement actions leads to more research and development and higher safety standards, Tesla shares might still be in severe danger by 2026.
The U.S. trade war and TSLA stock
Recent Trump administration moves have damaged U.S. relations with the EU, and Musk’s involvement – including calls to exit NATO and the UN – generated enough popular resistance that Tesla dealerships are being torched in France.
The situation could be exacerbated by the news that a Chinese EV maker called JMEV is planning to construct a production plant in northern Serbia to circumvent EU tariffs.
Tesla has been a big beneficiary of the high dues the European Union levies upon electric vehicles from the People’s Republic.
Lastly, though TSLA stock is, given the current trajectory, likely to enjoy, at worst, a swan song in 2025 and appears at risk in 2026, being vigilant remains critical: there has been no shortage of surprises in recent years.
Furthermore, none of the risk factors are guaranteed to lead to bad outcomes for Tesla. For example, despite JMEV’s plans appearing dangerous, the plant might never materialize, given the political crisis in Serbia, which was triggered by severe government corruption and spurred on by regime violence.
Even if the plant is constructed, it may not achieve its hoped-for goal of securing the EU market, as the union appears relatively hostile toward the People’s Republic if the comments of the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, are to be taken as representative.
Featured image via Shutterstock
Source: https://finbold.com/why-you-should-buy-tesla-stock-in-2025-but-sell-in-2026/
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