Solana price bottom below $100? Death cross hints at 30% drop

Solana (SOL) price completed a “death cross” on the one-day chart on March 12, as the altcoin consolidated near its long-term support level at $125.

This could potentially accelerate the SOL price sell-off in the near term for a drop below $100 for the first time since February 2024.

A death cross occurs when a bearish crossover occurs between the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), with the long-term indicator above the short-term indicator.

Last month, the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) triggered a death cross on Solana’s one-day chart, after which prices dropped 17%, from $137 to $122.

While the SMA and EMA death crosses carry similar implications, the EMA triggers the death cross faster since it responds more quickly to price changes. A double death cross from the SMA and EMA will likely increase the possibility of a correction.

Historically, the odds are neutral for Solana. Since its inception, SOL’s price has witnessed a death cross three times (including 2025) when prices have been on a 90-day or higher downtrend.

The first death cross in 2022 triggered a 90% collapse, but the FTX’s fiasco escalated its severity. The second death cross occurred in September 2024, but it reversed within a month, leading to the Trump rally.

Related: 3 reasons why Ethereum can outperform its rivals after crashing to 17-month lows

Yet, the current structure and sentiment mirror the 2022 death cross when we compare market conditions. On both occasions, a new all-time high preceded the downtrend, which led to the death cross.

As Cointelegraph reported, Solana’s revenue dropped 93% since January, dropping from $238 million to $32 million. This indicates a current lack of activity on Solana’s network after the end of the memecoin frenzy.

Can Solana traders defend $125?

Based on its technicals, Solana remains in a tricky spot when comparing previous death cross returns and collective market sentiment.

Solana must hold support between $125 and $110 for a bullish reversal. Since March 2024, SOL prices have rebounded six times after testing the support range, closing above $125 on each weekly retest.

A weekly close below $125 will signal market weakness, potentially increasing the likelihood of a drop below $100. The immediate price target after $110 is around $80 for Solana, which is a significant 30% correction. The downtrend target carries confluence with the weekly 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line.

However, the bulls will pin their hopes on a bullish divergence between the price and relative strength index (RSI) on the 1-day and 4-hour charts.

If Solana manages to avoid another lower low, the divergences will remain valid, which can push prices higher above $125, enabling Solana to avoid a drop below $100 and possibly establish a bottom at $112.

Related: Will Bitcoin price reclaim $95K before the end of March?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.