Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge depends on where one lives — Analyst

For years, inflation was primarily a concern for emerging markets, where volatile currencies and economic instability made rising prices a persistent challenge. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation became a global issue. Once-stable economies with historically low inflation were suddenly grappling with soaring costs, prompting investors to rethink how to preserve their wealth.

While gold and real estate have long been hailed as safe-haven assets, Bitcoin’s supporters argue that its fixed supply and decentralized nature make it the ultimate shield against inflation. But does the theory hold up?

The answer may depend largely on where one lives.

Bitcoin advocates emphasize its strict supply limit of 21 million coins as a key advantage in combating inflationary monetary policies. Unlike fiat currencies, which central banks can print in unlimited quantities, Bitcoin’s supply is predetermined by an algorithm, preventing any form of artificial expansion. This scarcity, they argue, makes Bitcoin akin to “digital gold” and a more reliable store of value than traditional government-issued money.

Several companies and even sovereign nations have embraced the idea, adding Bitcoin to their treasuries to hedge against fiat currency risk and inflation. The most notable example is El Salvador, which made global headlines in 2021 by becoming the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The government has since been steadily accumulating Bitcoin, making it a key component of its economic strategy. Companies like Strategy in the US and Metaplanet in Japan have followed suit, and now the United States is in the process of establishing its own Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

A Bitcoin investment strategy has paid off so far

So far, the corporate and government Bitcoin investment strategy has paid off as BTC outperformed the S&P 500 and gold futures since the early 2020s before inflation surged in the United States.

More recently, however, that strong performance has shown signs of moderation. Bitcoin remains a strong performer over the past 12 months, and while BTC’s gains outpace consumer inflation, economists caution that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indeed, some studies suggest a correlation between cryptocurrency returns and changes in inflation expectations is far from consistent over time. 

Returns over the past 12 months. Source: Truflation.

Bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge remains uncertain

Unlike traditional inflation hedges such as gold, Bitcoin is still a relatively new asset. Its role as a hedge remains uncertain, especially considering that widespread adoption has only gained traction in recent years.

Despite high inflation in recent years, Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated wildly, often correlating more with risk assets like tech stocks than with traditional inflation hedges like gold.

A recent study published in the Journal of Economics and Business found that Bitcoin’s ability to hedge inflation has weakened over time, particularly as institutional adoption grew. In 2022, when US inflation hit a 40-year high, Bitcoin lost more than 60% of its value, while gold, a traditional inflation hedge, remained relatively stable.

For this reason, some analysts say that Bitcoin’s price may be driven more by investor sentiment and liquidity conditions than by macroeconomic fundamentals like inflation. When the risk appetite is strong, Bitcoin rallies. But when markets are fearful, Bitcoin often crashes alongside stocks.

In a Journal of Economics and Business study, authors Harold Rodriguez and Jefferson Colombo said,

“Based on monthly data between August 2010 and January 2023, the results indicate that Bitcoin returns increase significantly after a positive inflationary shock, corroborating empirical evidence that Bitcoin can act as an inflation hedge.”

However, they noted that Bitcoin’s inflationary hedging property was stronger in the early days when institutional adoption of BTC was not as prevalent. Both researchers agreed that “[…]Bitcoin’s inflation-hedging property is context-specific and likely diminishes as it achieves broader adoption and becomes more integrated into mainstream financial markets.”

“So far, it has acted as an inflation hedge—but it’s not a black-and-white case. It’s more of a cyclical (phenomenon),” Robert Walden, head of trading at Abra, told Cointelegraph.

Walden said,

“For Bitcoin to be a true inflation hedge, it would need to consistently outpace inflation year after year with its returns. However, due to its parabolic nature, its performance tends to be highly asymmetric over time.”

Bitcoin’s movement right now, Walden said, is more about market positioning than inflation hedging—it’s about capital flows and interest rates.”

Argentina and Turkey seek financial refuge in crypto

In economies suffering from runaway inflation and strict capital controls, Bitcoin has proven to be a valuable tool for preserving wealth. Argentina and Turkey, two countries with persistent inflation throughout recent decades, illustrate this dynamic well.

Argentina has long grappled with recurring financial crises and soaring inflation. While inflation has shown signs of improvement very recently, locals have historically turned to cryptocurrency as a way to bypass financial restrictions and protect their wealth from currency depreciation.

A recent Coinbase survey found that 87% of Argentinians believe crypto and blockchain technology can enhance their financial independence, while nearly three in four respondents see crypto as a solution to challenges like inflation and high transaction costs.

Related: Argentina overtakes Brazil in crypto inflows — Chainalysis

With a population of 45 million, Argentina has become a hotbed for crypto adoption, with Coinbase reporting that as many as five million Argentinians use digital assets daily.

“Economic freedom is a cornerstone of prosperity, and we are proud to bring secure, transparent, and reliable crypto services to Argentina,” said Fabio Plein, Director for the Americas at Coinbase.

“For many Argentinians, crypto isn’t just an investment, it’s a necessity for regaining control over their financial futures.”

“People in Argentina don’t trust the peso. They are always looking for ways to store value outside of the local currency,” Julián Colombo, a senior director at Bitso, a major Latin American cryptocurrency exchange, told Cointelegraph.

“Bitcoin and stablecoins allow them to bypass capital controls and protect their savings from devaluation.”

Beyond individual investors, businesses in Argentina are also using Bitcoin and stablecoins to protect revenue and conduct international transactions. Some workers even opt to receive part of their salaries in cryptocurrency to safeguard their earnings from inflation.

According to economist and crypto analyst Natalia Motyl,

“Currency restrictions and capital controls imposed in recent years have made access to US dollars increasingly difficult amid high inflation and a crisis of confidence in the Argentine peso. In this environment, cryptocurrencies have emerged as a viable alternative for preserving the value of money, allowing individuals and businesses to bypass the limitations of the traditional financial system.”

While Bitcoin’s effectiveness as an inflation hedge is still up for debate, stablecoins have become a more practical solution in high-inflation economies, particularly those pegged to the US dollar.

Relative to its economic size, Turkey has emerged as a hotspot for stablecoin transactions. In the year leading up to March 2024, purchases alone accounted for 4.3% of GDP. This digital currency boom, fueled by years of double-digit inflation—peaking at 85% in 2022—and a more than 80% plunge in the lira against the dollar over the past five years, gained momentum during the pandemic.

Turkey’s Bitcoin adoption proves citizens drive adoption, not governments

Although Turkey allows its citizens to buy, hold, and trade crypto, the use of digital currencies for payments has been banned since 2021 when the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey prohibited “any direct or indirect usage of crypto assets in payment services and electronic money issuance.” Nevertheless, crypto adoption in Turkey is still evident, with an increasing number of Turkish banks offering crypto services and shops and ATMs providing crypto exchange options.

High inflation rates backed the erosion of the Turkish lira’s value, which lost nearly 60% of its purchasing power as inflation soared to 85.5% between 2021 and 2023. This led many Turkish citizens to turn to Bitcoin as a store of value and a medium of exchange.

While some argue that Bitcoin’s scarcity bodes well for long-term appreciation, potentially outpacing consumer inflation, its high volatility and recurring correlation with tech-heavy, risk-associated indexes like the Nasdaq in recent times suggest that its performance as a pure inflation hedge remains mixed.

However, in inflation-ridden nations like Argentina and Turkey, where local currencies have collapsed in value, the “digital gold” has undeniably served as a crucial avenue of escape from local currencies, preserving purchasing power in ways traditional fiat cannot.

Although Bitcoin is still a nascent asset, and its effectiveness as a hedge requires further study, one thing remains clear—so far, it has significantly outperformed consumer inflation. For Bitcoin enthusiasts, that alone is reason enough to celebrate.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.