Analysts have suggested it is “just matter of time” until the US ban on TikTok spreads to allied countries and beyond – if the Trump administration decides to keep it offline.
The app has been switched off in America after US lawmakers ruled it was a national security risk because of owner ByteDance’s ties to the Chinese government – ties it denies.
Incoming President Trump has indicated though that he is opposed to the ban and will find a way to reverse it.
If the US ban goes ahead, experts point to the previous ousting of Chinese and Russian tech companies on national security grounds as a potential blueprint for how the TikTok ban might spread around the world.
“There are big parallels between TikTok and what happened with China’s Huawei and Russia’s Kaspersky that indicates it’s just a matter of time until a creeping ban takes affect,” says Emily Taylor, Editor of the Cyber Policy Journal.
In both cases these companies were accused by the US of being a threat to national security – but no smoking gun was ever revealed by cyber security authorities.
The same has happened with TikTok.
Under President Trump, Kaspersky’s flagship antivirus software product was banned from civil and military computers in the US after accusations arose in 2017 that it was used by the Kremlin in a hacking incident that was never proven.
The UK followed almost immediately and one by one other allies fell into line with restrictions, warnings or bans.
It took years but eventually a countrywide ban took effect last year in the US but it was all but redundant by then. Kaspersky closed its US operations followed by its UK offices saying there is no viable business there.
The company has always argued that the US government based its decision on the “geopolitical climate and theoretical concerns” rather than independently verifying risk.
According to research from Bitsight Kaspersky’s decline in usage after the ban was pronounced, not just in the US but in at least 25 other countries too, even those with no overt public policy to ban the software.
Almost the exact same thing happened with Chinese telecoms giant Huawei.
The US accused Huawei and other Chinese tech firms of being too close to the Chinese government. It argued that the company’s popular 5G kit should not be used to build telecoms in case it could be used to spy on or degrade communications.
A former Huawei UK member of staff said that once the US decided to ban, block or restrict Huawei it became almost inevitable that allies would follow.
“The UK and others spoke about independently coming to their own conclusions over security but the US was unrelenting in its lobbying behind closed doors. They warned about the national security risks which were never backed up by evidence,” said the former insider, who didn’t want to be named.
Intense US lobbying of allies on security issues is something often seen in many aspects of cyber policy.
The beady gaze of the Five Eyes
It usually starts with countries in the Five Eyes Alliance.
The close-knit intelligence sharing arrangement is between five English-speaking democracies: the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
So far, all members have banned TikTok from government devices and some have issued public warnings too. Canada has ordered an end to TikTok’s Canadian operations citing national security concerns.
The Five Eyes knock-on effect can be considerable and restrictions have already spread with the app banned on devices of government employees, civil servants or military personnel in countries including Austria, Belgium, Estonia, France, The Netherlands, Norway and Taiwan.
Ciaran Martin, who was head of the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre during the bans on Huawei and Kaspersky, agrees that generally when the US makes a national security or strategic decision about a company, the UK and allies eventually follow suit.
However, as with everything else to do with TikTok, he says there is a huge caveat in the form of the incoming Trump administration.
“What we don’t yet know is whether TikTok will be the exception as Trump has said he is opposed to the ban so will he order allies to replicate a ban? We don’t yet know.”
Trump’s position on TikTok has changed dramatically since his first presidency when he tried to get it banned. Since then he has become a supporter after his re-election campaign gained support through TikTok videos.
Emily Taylor agrees that this unknown factor might make TikTok different to Huawei and Kaspersky.
“It depends on how much pressure the administration is willing to exert”, she told the BBC.
“If their foreign policy agenda is packed then forcing other allies to follow the ban might fall down the list and allow countries to wait it out”.
At the moment, there are “no plans” for a TikTok ban in the UK, a government spokesperson said on Saturday. “We engage with all major social media companies to understand their plans for ensuring the security of UK data and to ensure they meet the high data protection and cyber security standards we expect.”
The West – and the rest
Another aspect to consider about TikTok’s future post-US ban is whether or not the app can continue to thrive without a US customer base.
Any app that loses 170m users would suffer but US users in particular are valuable for creators, advertisers and direct spending in TikTok Shop.
If the rest of the West follows it will reduce the money flowing into the company and curtail development of new features, further entrenching the dominance of US platforms like Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts and Snapchat.
TikTok is already banned in Pakistan, Afghanistan and India too – a massive market. It has no presence in China because of its sister app Douyin.
Kaspersky and Huawei both managed to weather their storms by relying on home-grown customer bases and by pivoting to regions like Africa and the Middle East.
So it might be possible for TikTok to build its user bases here. But if the US ban creeps around the world then the app will likely never be as big as it currently is and may well wither and die a slow death.
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