Bitcoin (BTC) heads into FOMC week in a cautious mood, with multimonth lows still uncomfortably close.
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BTC price action preserves $80,000 support as upside liquidity looks ripe for the taking.
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The Fed is the center of attention with a decision due on interest rates and traders eagerly scanning Chair Jerome Powell for dovish signals.
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A return to accumulation among Bitcoin top buyers forms grounds for confidence over market stability going forward.
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Historical BTC price cycle analysis delivers an impressive $126,000 target for the start of June.
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Those looking to “be greedy when others are fearful” should concentrate on $69,000, research concludes.
Bitcoin trader sees $87,000 liquidity grab
A comparatively quiet weekend saw BTC/USD avoid a lasting sell-off into the weekly close, instead only dipping to $82,000 before rebounding.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows a broad reclaim of the $80,000 mark cementing itself in recent days.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Not a bad Sunday for Bitcoin,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe summarized in part of his latest market analysis on X.
“We still have Monday to go, but this looks like we’re making a new higher low on Bitcoin before attacking the highs again.”
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Other market participants echoed the sentiment, including those seeing another retest of multimonth lows to take liquidity and “trap” late shorts.
“I think Bitcoin will hit 78k first to grab liquidity before an Upside Breakout,” popular trader Captain Faibik argued in part of his own X content.
“Once the breakout occurs, Bitcoin is likely to reach 109k in the coming weeks (Possibly by mid-April).”
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Captain Faibik/X
Fellow trader CrypNuevo meanwhile noted that liquidity was skewed mostly to the upside, resulting in key targets for bulls to take.
“The area between $85.4k & $87.1k is the main liquidity zone,” an X thread explained.
“A move up targeting this area in the upcoming week seems more than likely.”
Bitcoin exchange order book liquidity data. Source: CrypNuevo/X
Fed’s Powell in the spotlight as FOMC week arrives
Bitcoin and risk-asset traders have one macroeconomic event only on their minds this week: the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
Coming at what commentary calls a “pivotal point in time,” the move by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will have wide-ranging implications for market sentiment.
On the surface, it appears that few surprises will likely come as a result of the second meeting of 2025 — inflation may be cooling, but Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, maintain a hawkish stance on the economy and financial policy.
Powell has repeatedly stated that he is in no rush to cut rates, leading to almost unanimous market bets that current levels will remain unchanged after FOMC.
🇺🇸 FOMC: Polymarket users predict a 99% chance that the Fed will not make any rate cut changes on Mar. 20. pic.twitter.com/zaDGBsmAZM
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) March 17, 2025
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool see a high probability of cuts coming only in June.
Should Powell strike a more relaxed tone during his accompanying statement and press conference, the mood could easily flip.
“If Powell even whispers ‘QE’ at the next FOMC, markets will move fast,” crypto technical analyst Kyle Doops argued in part of an X post on the topic.
“But knowing Powell, he’ll keep it as vague as possible.”
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
Doops referred to quantitative easing, a byword for liquidity injections and something that historically benefits crypto performance.
Behind the scenes, US M2 money supply is already increasing — a key ingredient for a crypto market rebound.
“M2 money supply rose +3.9% year-over-year in January, the fastest pace in 30 months. This is the 11th straight month of money supply expansion,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted at the weekend.
Kobeissi added that worldwide liquidity is following a similar pattern.
“Meanwhile, global money supply has risen by ~$2.0 trillion over the last 2 months, to its highest since September 2024,” it reported.
“Money supply is expanding again.”
US M2 money supply chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X
Recent buyers show new “hodling behavior”
Newer Bitcoin investors are showing signs of maturing behavior as the bull market drawdown persists.
The latest findings from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveal accumulation taking over for the older half of the short-term holder (STH) cohort.
STH entities are those who bought BTC up to six months ago. Per CryptoQuant, investors hodling between three and six months are now entering “accumulation” by refusing to succumb to panic selling, despite potentially being underwater on their stack.
“According to the latest data, the percentage of coins held for 3 to 6 months has been rising rapidly, mirroring the accumulation patterns observed during the prolonged correction in the summer of 2024,” contributor ShayanBTC wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on March 16.
“This trend highlights a hodling behavior, where investors refrain from selling their Bitcoin despite the current market correction.”
Bitcoin realized cap by UTXO age (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart shows Bitcoin’s realized cap split by the age of unspent transaction output (UTXOs). This reflects the total value of coins based on the price at which they last moved, with those dormant for between three and six months rising rapidly.
“Historically, this type of resilience among Bitcoin holders has played a crucial role in forming market bottoms and igniting new uptrends,” the post continues.
“As long-term holders continue accumulating, the available supply in circulation decreases, making Bitcoin more scarce. When demand eventually picks up, this supply squeeze often leads to price surges, pushing Bitcoin toward new record highs.”
As Cointelegraph reported, however, STH buyers from 2025 have exhibited strikingly different reactions to the BTC price drop, selling coins with a combined $100 million loss since the start of February alone.
$126,000 BTC price by June?
Network economist Timothy Peterson’s historically accurate BTC price metric, Lowest Price Forward, recently gave 95% odds of BTC/USD never dropping below $69,000 again.
Now, another calculation sees the potential for new all-time highs by the start of June.
Bitcoin seasonal comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Comparing BTC price performance since 2015 at the weekend, Peterson described Bitcoin as currently being “near the low end” of what remains a standard range.
The next two months, however, should be critical — April is historically one of the two best months for the Bitcoin bull market.
“Nearly all of Bitcoin’s annual performance occurs in 2 months: April and October,” Peterson commented.
“It is entirely possible Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high before June.”
Bitcoin growth of $100 comparison. Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Further analysis produced a BTC price target of $126,000 as an average level that Bitcoin could still attain within the next two-and-a-half months.
$70,000 marks a key “FUD” watershed
When it comes to BTC price predictions, social media analysis is giving research firm Santiment cause to pay attention to two levels in particular.
Related: Bitcoin reclaims $80K zone as BNB, TON, GT, ATOM hint at altcoin season
In its latest investigation, Santiment tied $69,000 and $100,000 to extremes in market outlook.
“Over the past month, we have not seen Bitcoin’s market value fall below $70K OR rise above $100K,” it summarized on X.
“That means looking at the crowd’s social predictions of $100K is a great gauge for FOMO. Historically, markets move the opposite direction of the crowd’s expectations.”
Bitcoin social media data. Source: Santiment/X
Accompanying data examined social media mentions of various BTC price levels.
“This is why clusters of blue bars (representing $10K-$69K $BTC predictions) so reliably foreshadow a reversal (or buy signal), especially while markets are moving down and the crowd is getting fearful,” Santiment explained.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 32/100 on March 17, out of its “extreme fear” bracket and at its highest levels since Feb. 24.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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